Category Archives: Research

Two trends characterise the climate change predicament: accelerating progress, including a green technology revolution; and accelerating impacts and risks, which have been persistently underestimated. It is hoped that the former will prevail over the latter: that escalating climate impacts will reinforce action. But the opposite can also occur: climate consequences can distract from climate action.Continue reading “Derailment risk: why climate strategies fail – and how to fix them”

I was coauthor on an academic paper exploring how to conduct risk assessment of complex, global-scale ‘polycrisis’ risks. Read it here.

I coauthored a report on tipping points and the implications for EU governance. Read it here.

I wrote a report for the United Nations Develop Programme’s (UNDP) Strategic Innovation Unit on pathways to transforming economic systems. You can read it here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1um26K0GMMNCbQ1s1XQpJAvPKG3u6fSZZZj3mJIsu0BQ/edit?tab=t.0. A short blog post about this UNDP project can be read here: https://medium.com/@undp.innovation/charting-pathways-to-the-transformation-of-economic-systems-dd1091ea8d08.

A path-breaking report on the blind spots in the assessment and management of climate risks in national security. published by IPPR, Chatham House, and the University of Exeter as part of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative. Read it here. The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated that profound national security threats can result from non-hostile action and notContinue reading “The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security”

I was an author and editor for a global assessment of Earth system tipping point risks. The report was co-authored by hundreds of colleagues around the world and led by the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter. It can be accessed here. Narrative summary Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose someContinue reading “Global Tipping Points Report”

This paper was originally published in the Earth System Dynamics journal and was co-authored with Dr James Dyke and Joseph Evans 1 Introduction How will the effects of climate change, nature loss, and other environmental change impact our ability to tackle the causes of these problems? There is already a high demand on resources toContinue reading “Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition”

I was lead author of a report from IPPR and Chatham House. It’s part of the Cohort 2040 project. It argues that the historical failure to sufficiently tackle the climate and ecological crisis could create consequences that challenge the ability of societies to tackle the root causes of this crisis. This is a doom loop:Continue reading “Report: 1.5°C – dead or alive? The risks to transformational change from reaching and breaching the Paris Agreement goal”

This report – the first of the Cohort 2040 project and published with the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) – explores the huge challenge that emerging leaders of the millennial and younger generations could soon inherit. It argues they will have to be better prepared to continue the struggle for a more sustainable, equitableContinue reading “The Cohort 2040 Challenge (IPPR)”